Also you have to wonder how much of an addressable market there is left for people wanting AAA tiles on the switch that don't already own an Xbox or playstation or pc. There are heading for 60 million ps, mabey 30 million Xbox and God knows how many pc s. Yes of course there are Nintendo fans who would like the option but how many of the addressable market actually need those ports that can't get them elsewhere?
I split the market up into 4 sections that Nintendo could target.
Nintendo fans of which their are at least 14 million who bought the wii u. Likley more because even people who would always buy a Nintendo console Sat out the wii u.
People who are not gamers per se but have a fondness for Nintendo from their youth or don't game on any current system or possibly any system ever. Parents buying for a kid/kids now getting old enough to own a console. ( I was one of these parents a couple years ago with the wii u) in other words casual purchases. The vast majority of the people who bought the wii.
The second console buyers. This could be another big market if the console is reasonably priced. I hear a lot of second console intentions to buy the switch from pc gamers mostly but also other console owners. Price is king for this market. This portsbiaspect and access to Nintendo games is the draw of course.
People who want a one do it all console.
4 Is the market Nintendo has all but abandoned I think. If the price is right and they market this right then the combined flow of games full console and 3ds type games now turning their full attention on the switch as well as what I can see as a perfect ecosystem for indy developers to put their games on ( vita has largely been kept afloat by indys) and more switch exclusives where games can take advantage of the system. Should see it sell in enough numbers to have a thriving ecosystem. With the potential to sell really well to markets 2 and 3. I doubt it catches the imagination like the wii but who thought the wii would either at the time. The main thing is it has aspects that are desirable for the main markets its targeting and the marketing this time is clear unlike the wii u which was a dogs dinner from start to finish.
Tldr….. It doesn't matter if the switch does not gain alot of AAA releases ( it still might we don't know) because most people interested in those games mostly all ready has a means to play them. Think of it as a great second console, a place to access Nintendo games and a great indy game system with some AAA and older ports. A system which will live or die by its pricing given all of the above
Discussion started at here by septicdemocracy