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Odds of getting a Switch at retail on launch day

What would you estimate the chances are of me showing up at a retail store (probably Target) on launch day and successfully walking out with a Switch in hand? In other words, I am curious if a preorder is mandatory.

Background: Zelda is my favorite game franchise. It goes without saying, I need to have Breath of the Wild on release day. It sounds like the game will launch same day as the Switch. I'd love to play it on the Switch, as opposed to the Wii U. Inb4 "The Wii U version might be the definitive version." I know. I still want to play it on the Switch.

submitted by /u/Jos1986
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